Opening Salvo Quirked Up

Economic War with China. 1,450 words, 7 minute read. With Claude.

TRANSCRIPT: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Private Audio Journal

[Voice authentication confirmed. Encryption enabled. April 16, 2025.]

Let the record show this was never about economics. The Golden Tariff—let history remember I objected to that name—was designed from the beginning as a trigger. A deliberate provocation. The President likes to call it "strategic economic leverage," but we're placing fiscal landmines and hoping China steps on them first.

The models show catastrophic outcomes. I've run them three times. Agricultural exports collapse. Consumer prices spike 18%. Retirement portfolios hemorrhage value. But the President says America can absorb short-term pain. He's convinced China will break first.

What keeps me awake isn't the economic damage. It's what comes after. The timeline the Pentagon keeps pushing: five years until Chinese military parity. The phrase repeated in every NSC meeting: "confrontation on our terms, on our timeline."

I took an oath to serve my country. I tell myself that's what I'm doing.

[Recording paused for 47 seconds]

Even if we're sleepwalking into war.

REPORT: U.S. Presidential Daily Brief (Extract)

[TOP SECRET//NOFORN – April 17, 2025]

Intelligence indicates Beijing anticipated our tariff strategy and has prepared countermeasures beyond economic retaliation. SIGINT suggests outreach to European capitals began 72 hours before our announcement. Source REDWOOD reports internal CCP messaging frames American action as "desperate attempt to maintain hegemony through economic coercion."

Assessment: High confidence (90%) Chinese leadership views tariffs as opening move in broader containment strategy. Medium confidence (65%) they will seek to fracture Western economic alliance rather than escalate directly.

WARNING INDICATOR: Unusual activity observed at PLAN South Sea Fleet headquarters. Satellite imagery shows increased readiness posture at artificial island installations in Spratlys.

RECOMMENDATION: Consider staged implementation of tariffs to retain negotiation space.

[ADDENDUM: Presidential notation in margin: "PROCEED AS PLANNED – DJT"]

EDITORIAL: Global Times (English Edition)

[Published April 18, 2025 – Beijing]

The Trump administration's unprecedented tariffs represent nothing less than economic terrorism against not only China but the entire global trading system. This desperate action reveals America's fear of China's peaceful development and legitimate security interests.

Let us be clear: these are not economic measures but the opening salvo in a new Cold War. Washington strategists, drunk on fading hegemonic power, believe they can isolate China as they once did the Soviet Union. They will fail.

China's countermeasures are restrained and proportionate. We seek neither economic dominance nor military confrontation. But we will not be bullied by a declining power whose own allies increasingly question its erratic leadership.

The ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu taught that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. China has always played the long game. Americans measure success by quarterly profits; we measure by generations.

Washington has miscalculated gravely. The global South stands with China. Europe cannot afford to choose sides. The American century ends not with a bang, but with a tariff.

TRANSCRIPT: Oval Office Meeting

[April 20, 2025 – 11:42 AM EST]

TRUMP: So they took the bait.

BESSENT: They imposed retaliatory tariffs, yes. 100% across the board on American goods. But, sir, we're getting intelligence that suggests—

TRUMP: Perfect. Absolutely perfect. Now we have our narrative. It's not America against everyone. It's China against the rules. Against fairness.

NSA DIRECTOR: Mr. President, we're detecting unusual communication patterns between Beijing and European capitals. Particularly Brussels and Berlin.

TRUMP: Europe needs us more than China. Always has, always will.

BESSENT: The models didn't account for China prioritizing strategic positioning over economic pain, sir. They might be willing to—

TRUMP: The models, the models. They also said I wouldn't win in 2016 or 2024. How'd that work out?

DEFENSE SECRETARY: Sir, we should discuss military posture in the Pacific. If this continues to escalate—

TRUMP: That's the whole point, isn't it? We need to be in position while we still have the advantage. You said it yourself last week. Five years. Maybe less.

[Cross-talk for 7 seconds]

TRUMP: So China hits back. We expected that. Now we lift tariffs from everyone except Beijing. Isolate them. Turn the screws. Let them know who's boss.

BESSENT: And if they don't submit?

[18 seconds of silence]

TRUMP: Then we're ready for that too. Aren't we, General?

INTERNAL MEMO: Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

[Classified – Politburo Eyes Only – April 21, 2025][TRANSLATION FROM MANDARIN – CIA LANGUAGE SERVICES]

American economic aggression presents both crisis and opportunity. Threat assessment concurs with Vice Premier Liu's analysis: tariffs designed as provocation, not negotiation tactic. Washington strategists believe time works against them as our military modernization continues.

President Xi's directive is clear: avoid military confrontation that Americans seek while exploiting strategic opportunity to accelerate decline of dollar hegemony. American miscalculation creates historic opening.

Operation Silver Circuit to proceed immediately. European overtures already yielding results—ECB receptive to currency swap arrangements. ASEAN trade ministers indicate willingness to join alternative settlement mechanism. Russian engagement to be handled through existing channels.

Externally, maintain narrative of victimhood and restraint. Internally, prepare for economic decoupling and potential limited confrontation in South China Sea. All ministries to implement contingency plans for disruption of American technology access.

Most critical: Washington must believe their strategy is succeeding until it is too late to reverse course.

TRANSCRIPT: Emergency NSC Meeting

[April 24, 2025 – 12:22 AM EST]

TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: —worst market drop since 2008. Asian markets in freefall. But the real problem is what the Europeans just announced.

TRUMP: Say it again. I want everyone to hear exactly what happened.

BESSENT: The European Central Bank has established a currency swap line with the People's Bank of China. €500 billion. Simultaneous announcement of a new trade protocol that creates preferential access for European goods to Chinese markets. They're systematically bypassing the dollar.

[Crosstalk, unintelligible for 12 seconds]

NSA DIRECTOR: It's not just Europe. We're seeing indications that ASEAN nations, Gulf states—

TRUMP: How the hell did this happen? You said they'd isolate China, not join them!

BESSENT: Sir, we... we miscalculated. The models didn't account for—

TRUMP: I don't want to hear about your fucking models! I want options. I want the next move. RIGHT NOW.

DEFENSE SECRETARY: Mr. President, we have prepared a range of escalatory measures. Economic, diplomatic, and military options are all available.

TRUMP: Everything. I want everything on the table.

JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: [quietly] Everything, sir?

TRUMP: EVERYTHING.

[Silence for 23 seconds]

BESSENT: [barely audible] Oh God, what have we done?

UNCLASSIFIED TRANSCRIPT: Public Address by President Xi Jinping

[April 25, 2025 – Beijing]

In the face of unprecedented economic aggression, China remains committed to peaceful development and international cooperation. We did not choose this confrontation, but neither will we surrender our sovereignty or our people's well-being.

America's attempt to isolate China has instead revealed its own isolation. The international community recognizes that the future lies in cooperation, not conflict; in multilateralism, not hegemony; in shared prosperity, not zero-sum competition.

The extraordinary measures announced yesterday by our European partners, by ASEAN, by our friends across the Global South, demonstrate a worldwide recognition that no single country can dictate terms to all others. The era of a unipolar world is ending—not through confrontation, but through the natural evolution of history.

China extends an open hand to all nations, including the United States. We seek neither to replace America nor to challenge its legitimate interests. We ask only for mutual respect and equal dignity.

As our ancient wisdom teaches: The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Yesterday, the world took that step toward a more balanced international order. China stands ready to walk this path with all who share our vision of a common future for mankind.

TRANSCRIPT: Scott Bessent's Private Audio Journal

[Voice authentication confirmed. Encryption enabled. April 26, 2025.]

The President ordered military alertness levels raised across the Pacific. Carrier groups repositioning. The Chinese must see it. They must know what's coming next.

We thought we were setting a trap. We thought our Golden Tariff was so clever—force China to reveal aggressive intent through economic retaliation. Instead, they've revealed our isolation.

The Europeans chose their markets over our security guarantees. The global South followed. Even Japan and South Korea are hedging their bets.

History will record that World War III began not with an assassination or a border incursion, but with a tariff. A golden, shining, catastrophic tariff.

[Recording paused for 115 seconds]

The markets will open in three hours. God help us all.

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